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The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?

Post time: 2025-10-15 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex official website]: The U.S. dollar index is dangerously close to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On October 15, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.01. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index stayed just above the 99 mark and finally closed down 0.21% at 99.056. U.S. bond yields generally fell, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield hitting 4% for the first time since September 17 and finally closing at 4.033%. The 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.491%. Spot gold hit the $4,180/ounce mark during the session, setting another all-time high. Then there was a flash crash, pulling back nearly $90 from the daily high. The U.S. market moved higher again, and finally closed up 0.77% at $4,142.15/ounce, marking the third consecutive trading day of gains. Spot silver also rode a roller coaster, setting a new all-time high and then diving, finally closing down 2.05% at $51.273/ounce. As the IEA warned that global oil supply will be severely oversupplied in 2026 and trade tensions remain, international crude oil returned to decline. WTI crude oil fell 3% at one time, and then the decline narrowed, finally closing down 1.69% at US$58.23/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.76% at US$62.07/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.01. The U.S. dollar index is falling as traders focus on Powell's llfzg.cnments. The Fed chairman said the central bank may stop reducing its balance sheet in the llfzg.cning months. He also noted that there is no risk-free path to monetary policy. Technically, the nearest support level for the U.S. dollar index is in the 98.85–99.00 range. A break below the 98.85 level will boostThe U.S. Dollar Index is heading towards the next support level at 98.00–98.20.

The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1610. EUR/USD regained some ground as the U.S. dollar weakened as the Federal Reserve Chairman issued neutral dovish llfzg.cnments and the French government announced a pause in pension reforms. Technically, if EUR/USD closes above the 1.1600 level, it will head towards the 50 EMA at 1.1643.

The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330. Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.8% in the three months to August, llfzg.cnpared with the previous month and the consensus estimate of 4.7%. Further details showed that the number of people filing for unemployment benefits rose by 258,000 in September, llfzg.cnpared with a revised decline of 20,000 in August. Technically, a successful test of the 1.3330–1.3350 resistance would open the way to a test of the 50 EMA at 1.3390.

The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 4161.16. Precious metals edged higher as traders flocked to safe-haven assets amid trade tensions and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are due to speak later on Wednesday, including Stephen Millan, Christopher Waller and Jeff Schmid.

The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?(图4)

Technical: Although gold prices have reached record highs near $4,180, gold prices are still biased upward. Momentum is in favor of further upside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, suggesting buyers are gathering momentum. If gold breaks through Tuesday's all-time high, the next level of resistance will be $4,200, followed by $4,250 and $4,300.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 58.22. Global oil prices fell under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global crude oil market may experience a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day by 2026. In addition, as trade tensions between China and the United States escalated, investor risk aversion increased.

The U.S. dollar index is barely holding on to the 99 mark, is an interest rate cut imminent?(图5)

Technical: A close above $58.36 may signal that a bottom is forming, with support testing the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement zone at $58.39 - the key maximum retracement area in Fibonacci analysis. A decisive move above this level would increase the risk of failure, opening the door to lower targets near the indicator confluence at $56.47.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on October 15, 2025

① To be determined, European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend the meeting

②09:30 China’s September CPI annual rate

③14:45 French September CPI monthly rate final value

④17:00 Eurozone industrial output monthly rate in August

⑤20:30 Canadian wholesale sales monthly rate

⑥20:30 U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index in October

⑦21:30 Fed Governor Milan delivers a speech

⑧Federal Reserve Governor Milan gave a speech at 00:30 the next day

⑨Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a speech at 01:00 the next day

⑩Fed Schmid gave a speech at 01:35 the next day

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of Economic Conditions at 02:00 the next day

European Central Bank President Lagarde participated in the debate at 02:00 the next day

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